演讲者：Bill Gates TED 2015

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　　文章会持续提供TED演讲的transcript供大家阅读观看学习。文中所有观点不代表笔者本人或者公司立场。

　　演讲正文来源：

　　https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready/transcript

　　2015年，Bill Gates就传染病的问题进行了演讲。

　　在全球疫情肆虐的今天，演讲的内容仍发人深省。

　　以下是演讲部分正文，大家学习一下搭配和表达

　　【冠状病毒图片】

　　If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes. Now, part of the reason for this is that we've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. But we've actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. We're not ready for the next epidemic.

　　a highly infectious virus 高传染性病毒

　　nuclear deterrents 核威慑

　　stop an epidemic 组织流行病

　　【Ebola病毒感染人图片】

　　Let's look at Ebola. I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. And as you look at what went on, the problem wasn't that there was a system that didn't work well enough, the problem was that we didn't have a system at all. In fact, there's some pretty obvious key missing pieces.

　　case analysis tools 案例分析工具

　　key missing pieces 关键缺失的部分

　　【医疗资源不足图片】

　　We didn't have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. The case reports came in on paper. It was very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. We didn't have a medical team ready to go. We didn't have a way of preparing people. Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers. But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers. There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. No one to look at the diagnostics. No one to figure out what tools should be used. As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. But that was never tried.

　　Epidemiologists 流行病学家

　　extremely inaccurate 极其不准确

　　job orchestrating volunteers 协调工作的志愿者

　　treatment approaches 治疗方法

　　figure out 弄清楚

　　【“西班牙流感”图片】

　　So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they're infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market. The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism. So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse. In fact, let's look at a model of a virus spread through the air, like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So here's what would happen: It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly. And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic. So this is a serious problem. We should be concerned.

　　natural epidemic 自然流行

　　spread through the air 空气传播

　　serious problem 严重的问题

　　【科技进步图片】

　　But in fact, we can build a really good response system. We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here. We've got cell phones to get information from the public and get information out to them. We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they're moving. We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen. So we can have tools, but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system. And we need preparedness.

　　good response system 良好的反应系统

　　satellite maps 卫星地图

　　overall global health system 整体全球卫生系统

　　need preparedness 需要准备

　　【贫困地区图片】

　　What are the key pieces? First, we need strong health systems in poor countries. That's where mothers can give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines. But, also where we'll see the outbreak very early on. We need a medical reserve corps: lots of people who've got the training and background who are ready to go, with the expertise. And then we need to pair those medical people with the military, taking advantage of the military's ability to move fast, do logistics and secure areas. We need to do simulations, germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are. The last time a germ game was done in the United States was back in 2001, and it didn't go so well. So far the score is germs: 1, people: 0. Finally, we need lots of advanced research and development in areas of vaccines and diagnostics. There are some big breakthroughs, like the Adeno-associated virus, that could work very, very quickly.

　　give birth safely 安全分娩

　　medical reserve corps 医疗后备队

　　take advantage of 利用

　　do logistics 做物流

　　advanced research and development in areas of 在…领域的先进研发

　　big breakthroughs 大突破

　　【警钟图片】

　　Now I don't have an exact budget for what this would cost, but I'm quite sure it's very modest compared to the potential harm. The World Bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic, global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars and we'd have millions and millions of deaths. These investments offer significant benefits beyond just being ready for the epidemic. The primary healthcare, the research and development, those things would reduce global health equity and make the world more just as well as safer. So I think this should absolutely be a priority. There's no need to panic. We don't have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement. But we need to get going, because time is not on our side. In fact, if there's one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic, it's that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready. If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic.

　　potential harm 潜在危害

　　worldwide flu epidemic 全球流感流行

　　offer significant benefits 提供重大好处

　　primary healthcare 基本保健

　　There's no need to panic. 不必惊慌

　　hoard cans of spaghetti 囤积罐装意面

　　serve as an early warning 作为预警

　　wake-up call 警钟

　　详细内容请访问：

　　https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready/transcript

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